Synthetic Biology 2020: Frontiers in Risk Analysis and Governance by Benjamin D. Trump & Christopher L. Cummings & Jennifer Kuzma & Igor Linkov

Author:Benjamin D. Trump & Christopher L. Cummings & Jennifer Kuzma & Igor Linkov
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783030272647
Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Techniques for bounding the probability of “surprise” (Shlyakhter 1994)

Techniques for handling “deep uncertainty” (Cox 2012)

Structured expert elicitation methods that force respondents to construct logically coherent scenarios (Cooke et al. 2007)

In contrast to the real need for additional complexity, it is also possible that SynBio risk analysts may be able to invoke some “first principles” for distinguishing high-concern scenarios from other ones, allowing for simpler assessments. For example, it may be the case that hybrid organisms designed to be less fit than the wild type cannot pose a significant risk to the ecosystem; if so, any scenarios involving mutations in which the hybrid organism remains less fit than before pose risks that might safely be ignored in a risk-risk analysis .

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